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Are We In A Freight Recession?

by Punjabi Trucking

Recent economic reports from trucking industry analysts show a decline in the freight market in the near term, but it could stabilize in the long term.

In ACT Research’s Freight Forecast for July, the firm affirmed its view that trucking is in the midst of a freight recession, forecasting that truckload and intermodal contract rates would fall this year due to overcapacity and weak freight demand. In turn, overcapacity is expected to give shippers the upper hand in rate negotiations.

The bad news is we’re in a freight recession, and the factors we focus on tell us spot rates are headed still lower near-term, but that’s been going on for a while, The good news is that for the first time this cycle, we see evidence on the horizon for an eventual bottoming and upturn in spot truckload rates, thanks to low new truck orders and improving capital discipline from the trucking industry.

U.S. retail sales of medium-duty trucks in July rose 14% and cleared 22,000 units, WardsAuto.com reported.

Total Classes 4-7 sales reached 22,323 compared with 19,586 a year earlier, according to Ward’s.

Class 7 sales improved slightly, rising 0.9% to 6,186. International, a brand of Navistar Inc., sold the most in the segment, 2,469 for a 40% market share.

Class 6 sales rose 16.6% to 6,878. Ford Motor Co. was the leader with 2,672 sales and a 39% share.

Classes 4-5 sales led the way, rising 22.5% to 9,259. Ford led in Class 5 with 4,081 sales and a 58% share. Isuzu Commercial Truck of America sold the most in Class 4, 1,077, good for a 49% share.

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